Mafakitale omwe ali ndi vuto la magetsi ogwiritsidwa ntchito moyenera angathandize kukweza kukula kwa msika pamalopomakina a dzuwa, ndipo njira zaposachedwa zolamula kuti ma PV akonzedwenso pa nyumba zomwe zilipo zitha kukweza msika, monga momwe katswiri Frank Haugwitz akufotokozera.

Pakhala njira zosiyanasiyana zomwe akuluakulu aku China achita kuti achepetse utsi woipa, ndipo chimodzi mwa zotsatira zake ndichakuti magetsi a dzuwa a PV omwe amagawidwa apeza kufunika kwakukulu, chifukwa chakuti amalola mafakitale kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zawo zomwe zimapangidwa m'deralo, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimakhala zotsika mtengo kuposa mphamvu zomwe zimaperekedwa ndi gridi - makamaka nthawi yomwe anthu ambiri amafuna kwambiri. Pakadali pano, nthawi yobwezera ndalama ya makina amalonda ndi mafakitale (C&I) ku China ndi pafupifupi zaka 5-6. Kuphatikiza apo, kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi a dzuwa padenga kudzathandiza kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa mpweya womwe opanga amapanga komanso kudalira kwawo mphamvu ya malasha.

Kumapeto kwa mwezi wa Ogasiti, bungwe la National Energy Administration (NEA) la ku China linavomereza pulogalamu yatsopano yoyesera yomwe cholinga chake chinali kulimbikitsa kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi a dzuwa. Chifukwa chake, pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2023, nyumba zomwe zilipo kale zidzafunika kukhazikitsa magetsi.makina a PV padenga.

Pansi pa lamuloli, nyumba zochepa kwambiri zidzafunika kuti zikhazikitsidwePV ya dzuwa, ndi zofunikira motere: nyumba za boma (osachepera 50%); nyumba za boma (40%); nyumba zamalonda (30%); ndi nyumba zakumidzi (20%), m'maboma 676, zidzafunika kukhala ndidongosolo la padenga la dzuwaPoganizira kuti 200-250 MW pa chigawo chilichonse, kufunikira konse komwe kumachokera mu pulogalamuyi kokha kungakhale pakati pa 130 ndi 170 GW pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2023.

Mawonekedwe a nthawi yapafupi

Mosasamala kanthu za momwe mfundo zoyendetsera mpweya wa kaboni kawiri komanso zowongolera kawiri zimakhudzira, m'masabata asanu ndi atatu apitawa mitengo ya polysilicon yakhala ikukwera - kufika pa RMB270/kg ($41.95).

M'miyezi ingapo yapitayi, kusintha kuchoka pa vuto la kuchepa kwa magetsi kupita ku vuto la kuchepa kwa magetsi, kuchepa kwa magetsi a polysilicon kwapangitsa makampani omwe alipo ndi atsopano kulengeza cholinga chawo chomanga mphamvu zatsopano zopangira polysilicon kapena kuwonjezera zinthu zomwe zilipo. Malinga ndi ziwerengero zaposachedwa, ngati mapulojekiti onse 18 a poly omwe akukonzekera kuchitidwa, matani 3 miliyoni a polysilicon omwe apangidwa pachaka akhoza kuwonjezeredwa pofika chaka cha 2025-2026.

Komabe, posachedwapa, mitengo ya polysilicon ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe yokwera, chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zinthu zina zomwe zikubwera pa intaneti m'miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi, komanso chifukwa cha kusintha kwakukulu kwa kufunikira kuchokera mu 2021 kupita chaka chamawa. M'masabata angapo apitawa, madera ambiri avomereza mapaipi a projekiti ya dzuwa ya gigawatts ziwiri, ambiri mwa iwo akukonzekera kulumikizidwa ku gridi pofika Disembala chaka chamawa.

Sabata ino, pamsonkhano wa atolankhani, oimira bungwe la NEA ku China adalengeza kuti, pakati pa Januwale ndi Seputembala, mphamvu yatsopano yopanga ma PV a dzuwa ya 22 GW idayikidwa, zomwe zikuyimira kuwonjezeka kwa 16%, chaka ndi chaka. Poganizira zomwe zachitika posachedwapa, bungwe la Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory likuyerekeza kuti mu 2021 msika ukhoza kukula pakati pa 4% ndi 13%, chaka ndi chaka - 50-55 GW - motero kudutsa chizindikiro cha 300 GW.

Frank Haugwitz ndi mkulu wa bungwe la Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory.